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After World War II the future
was easy to forecast. We had just gone through
the depression and "dust bowl" of the
1930s, followed by a global war. Anything was
better than what we had just endured and, with
the new found optimism, America was upbeat and
proud to help the rest of the world recover.
Nuclear energy, Univac computers, television,
jet aircraft — they made for a glamorous
future. Cars were covered in chrome, sprouted
fins and grew powerful engines. The future seemed
easy to predict and now, 60 years later, we can
pick from the best of over a half century of automobiles
for our favorites — 1948 MGTC, 1957 Chevrolet,
1962 Jaguar XK-E, 1971 Ferrari 365 GTB/4 Daytona,
1987 Buick Regal Grand National, 1992 Dodge Viper,
2005 Ford GT...
It is 2020 What are the most desirable
collector cars? Based on the formula of the past,
most collectors are about 50 years old and want
what they would have liked to have owned in their
youth. Subtracting 30 to 40 years from 2020 gives
us the years 1980 - 1990 to draw from. If this
formula remains valid in 2020, those are the years
to concentrate on for selecting most (but not
all) collector cars. Most collectors, however,
agree that the vehicles of the 1990s are more
impressive than those of the 1980s.
The results are in and there is little consensus.
Many contend that it is an impossible task to
predict the future and that putting money into
potential selections is too risky in 2006. In
his initial response to our questionnaire, Scott
Gordon, of Redwood City, California, states it
well when he says:
"Today is about the early seventies. Fast
forward 15 years and you're at 1985 which was
the all time low point for auto greatness. So
the future looks grim. Sorry. Any Ferrari still
OK."
Scott later goes on to say:
". . . the next 15 years will be interesting
as the very ordinary and unmemorable cars of the
late 70s and early 80s will test the formula.
The fuel crises of this period and evolving safety
regulations mean that the Ferrari 308 may be one
of the few "keepers" of this period.
Even Porsche was pretty dormant, basically a hand
builder with very limited sales. Maserati had
the Quattroporte active again in this same era,
but really!"
The most negative response was that global warming
will have killed us all by 2020. But most responses
were positive.
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